Our next opponents: 'The prelude to the real relegation battle'

Position

Bo Henriksen made a successful start with the new coach celebrating a 1-0 win for Mainz 05 against FC Augsburg last Saturday, the first victory in 2024 and only the second win this season. The Dane took over from Jan Siewert on Carnival Tuesday with his predecessor having failed to win in the previous eleven games. Four of the last five defeats were 1-0 losses. "What we needed was to change track," said sporting managing director Christian Heidel after the final whistle against Augsburg. "Fortunately, that's happened for the first time now. We'll see what that leads to in the coming weeks. It's a start. The prelude to the real relegation battle." In particular, the emotion and positive charisma of the new coach played a big part in the sought-after first victory since the 2-0 win against RB Leipzig in November 2023.

Henriksen is the third head coach in the current campaign following on from Bo Svensson and Jan Siewert. In October 2022, he was appointed coach at FC Zürich when they were bottom of the table and he saved them from relegation. He then led the big Swiss club back to top spot and FC Zürich were most recently third under the Dane. Before working in Switzerland, Henriksen was in Denmark where he finished runner-up in the Danish league and won the Danish cup competition with FC Midtjylland. After his successful first outing, the 49-year-old was highly satisfied with the performance of his team: "I'm proud of the players. They did everything we planned. Everybody gave 100% and played with energy, passion and emotion but without fear. That's the most important thing for me. The next step has to be us doing it every time."

Against Augsburg, Mainz almost dominated the whole game. Sepp van den Berg scored the winner with a header (44') set up by former Bayer 04 player Nadiem Amiri. Amiri could have doubled the lead just before half-time but his penalty hit the post. The deserved win puts Mainz one point behind FC Köln and the play-off spot.

Personnel

Central defender Andreas Hanche-Olsen will miss the game in Leverkusen due to a thigh injury suffered in the game against Augsburg. Last weekend, he was replaced in the final stages by the Frenchman Josuha Guilavogui. The 33-year-old is also an option for a start on Friday. The personnel situation in Mainz remains tight. A wave of flu hit the squad during the week affecting the strikers Jonathan Burkhardt, Ludovic Ajorque and Marco Richter as well as the former Leverkusen player Danny da Costa plus the assistant coach Niko Bungert. It remains to be seen which players are available on Friday night. In addition, Karim Onisiwo was unable to complete the full training programme has he suffered a blow to his thigh in the game against Augsburg. FSV stalwart Stefan Bell (mild myocarditis following bacterial infection) and talented striker Nelson Weiper (rehab training after a knee operation) are also sidelined. On the plus side, midfielder Tom Krauß returned to full training after recovering from an infection.

Performers

The fact Mainz are very physical on the pitch is part of the club's DNA. No other team makes more challenges per game than FSV (118). The team from Rheinhessen are also top of the league in terms of pressing and defensive actions. No wonder that Mainz have only conceded 35 goals – relatively few given their position of 17th in the table. In that ranking they are ninth. In attack, Nadiem Amiri has given the team a lift. The 27-year-old played for the Werkself up to the end of January this year. Since his move to Mainz, Amiri has been directly involved in 30 shots (13 shots on goal, 17 shots set up) and he was one of the most impressive Mainz players last weekend. FSV showed against Augsburg what they can normally do: High pressing, winning lots of second balls, powerplay football, attacks. And it was also not unusual for the winner to come from a header. FSV are in the top five in the league in terms of goals scored with headers (eight).

Problems

Mainz are the only team yet to win away this season and that run now stretches to 15 games over this and last season. They have secured six draws on the road this term. There are still problems in attack. With only 17 goals scored, the Red and Whites have netted the second fewest in the league. Only FC Köln (15) have found the back of the net less often. No Mainz player has scored more than two goals so far. Karim Onisiwo, the top scorer for FSV last season with ten goals, has not netted yet but is the best provider for Mainz with three assists. The strike rate of his fellow strikers Ludovic Ajorque (two), Jonathan Burkardt (one) and Marco Richter (one) leave room for improvement. There have been no lack of chances. Mainz have the sixth highest number of shots on goal. However, they have the worst conversion rate in the league. There is also an element of bad luck with twelve shots against the woodwork. And it appears they have been jinxed from the penalty spot: Mainz have missed all four this season.

Prediction

"I know it will be a difficult game and everybody knows that," said coach Bo Henriksen ahead of the challenge at the BayArena. But the Dane wants to "try everything" there and he said he is looking forward to the match: "It would be great if we end the Leverkusen run. We are not going there just to defend. We want to attack and get a result."Sporting managing director Heidel says the calculations for the rest of the season are relatively simple. "We have 15 points. To stay up you need 30 to 32 points for the play-off spot. Because the teams above us have so many points, you probably need 36 to avoid the drop. That's a lot and a similar number as in 2021."

Looking back may encourage the team from Rheinhessen. Three years ago, Mainz were also 17th on Matchday 22 with just two more points than they have this term. They then put together an impressive run in the last third of the season, winning six of the remaining twelve games, securing four draws and only losing twice. FSV picked up 22 points and ended the season 12th in the league. Will Mainz be able to turn the tables this time? A similar impressive finish is definitely possible this season. Particularly as the next five home games are against Borussia Mönchengladbach, VfL Bochum, SV Darmstadt, TSG Hoffenheim and FC Köln and all of those games give them a chance.