Our next opponents: VfB in relegation battle again

Position

Keep calm is the motto for VfB Stuttgart ahead of the last three games of the season. Easier said than done. Last weekend’s 2-1 defeat away to bottom-of-the-table Hertha Berlin was extremely annoying to the Swabians who were unable to exploit their superiority on the pitch, particularly in the second half. More possession (64%), more shots on goal (16-7), a higher pass completion rate (86%) – most of the stats were in favour of VfB. That reflected the great disappointment at the defeat in the capital. “We invested a lot, looked to score and not give anything away at the back in the second half but we were unable to create the penetration for clear-cut chances on goal,” was the analysis of coach Sebastian Hoeneß who took over from Bruno Labbadia after matchday 26.

The White and Reds were unbeaten in the first four games under Hoeneß. Stuttgart won 3-2 at VfL Bochum on his debut – their first Bundesliga away win since December 2021. VfB then frustrated title challengers Borussia Dortmund with a 3-3 draw although they were behind twice and down to ten men after 39 minutes. That was followed by a 1-1 draw at FC Augsburg and the important 2-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach that saw the Swabians not only escape the relegation zone but also the play-off place for the first time in a long while. VfB suffered the first defeat under Hoeneß in the DFB Cup semi-finals. The 3-2 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt hurt but was relatively quickly forgotten. The focus for Stuttgart was then clearly on survival in the top-flight. Three days after the cup exit, came the defeat at Hertha that dampened the positive atmosphere for a while. “But we’ve often had to deal with setbacks,” said sporting director Fabian Wohlgemuth and he appealed to the team: “Being down and disappointed doesn’t help us at all. We have to keep on believing.”

With three games to play before the end of the season, VfB are sixteenth in the table, level on points with VfL Bochum (seventeenth) and two points behind Schalke 04 (fifteenth). The Swabians can no longer escape the play-off position under their own steam.

Personnel

This Sunday, Sebastian Hoeneß will again have to manage without Konstantinos Mavropanos, who has won the second highest number of duels (66.8 %) in the Bundesliga after Bayern Munich’s Benjamin Pavard. The Greece international suffered a muscle injury in the 3-2 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt. “His recovery is going well but he’s not an option for Sunday,” said Hoeneß. The VfB coach may again play Dan-Axel Zagadou in the middle of a back three. The Frenchman did have to drop out of training in the week due to a knee problem. But Hoeneß has sounded the all clear: “I’m assuming there’s no question of him missing out.” The two young, homegrown defenders Luca Bazzoli (22) and Peter Reinhardt (18) are highly likely to be called up to the first team squad. Bazzoli was on the bench in Berlin.

In addition to the former Dortmund player Zagadou, the Japanese defender Hiroki Ito (left) and Waldemar Anton (right) are regular starters. VfB are no longer have an imbalance to the left on the wings as before the arrival of Hoeneß. The right wing-back Josha Vagnoman has developed brilliantly under the new coach. The Germany international, signed from Hamburg SV last summer, has scored two goals and provided two assists under Hoeneß. “Josha has a lot to offer, he is versatile and has strengths in attack with his stamina and size as well as his ability in the air. He is strong in the tackle and has physical strength,” said Hoeneß about Vagnoman who was nominated as the Rookie of the Month for April (the winner was Matthijs de Ligt of FC Bayern).

Most of the Stuttgart attacks for a large part of the season have come from the Croat Borna Sosa down the left flank. The 25-year-old is the best provider for the Swabians with seven assists this term.

Atakan Karazor, who was suspended for the game in Berlin, is set to return alongside captain Wataru Endo. That means the winter signing Genki Haraguchi is likely to make way. “Ata is a key player on the pitch, a leader,” said Hoeneß. Up front, the coach may again call on the Frenchman Enzo Millot, who mainly plays down the right, as well as the Portuguese Tiago Tomas. Serhou Guirassy is the centre-forward. The Guinea international, on loan from Stade Rennes is the top scorer for Stuttgart with nine goals to date.

Performers

The Swabians can fight and they have the third highest number of duels won in the Bundesliga (52%). VfB are equally difficult to put off course by going behind as against Augsburg and Dortmund, with draws achieved in both games, as they are by late equalisers. Against Gladbach, Stuttgart responded to the leveller at 1-1 from Julian Weigl (78’) almost immediately with the winner from Tanguy Coulibaly (83’). And they refused to give up in the defeats against Eintracht Frankfurt (2-3) and Hertha Berlin (1-2). Mentality, attitude, the desire to put in the running and fight are all evident in the group that has scored twelve goals in the final 15 minutes of games this season – seventh place in the league in this ranking. Der VfB have quality on the pitch with a high pass completion rate and they look to score. They have the fourth highest number of shots on goal (443).

Problems

However, in terms of accuracy in finishing (45 %, fourteenth) and conversion (13 %, seventeenth) Stuttgart are near the bottom. No wonder that VfB have scored the fourth lowest number of goals in the Bundesliga. There is a lack of penetration up front. And the Swabians pose little threat from set pieces. Ten goals from dead balls is the lowest number in the league (together with TSG Hoffenheim). Only Serhou Guirassy has proved to be reliable with nine goals in 19 games. The Swabians rarely keep a clean sheet. VfB have only managed that twice this season – the worst record of all the Bundesliga teams.

Prediction

Escaping the play-off spot is not in the hands of VfB Stuttgart. Their main focus is on Schalke 04. “Schalke have three really difficult games,” said Borna Sosa in highlighting the remaining matches for the Royal Blues who still have to play away to Bayern and RB Leipzig with a home game against Eintracht Frankfurt in between. After the match against the Werkself, VfB play Mainz 05 and the last game of the season sees the Swabians entertain TSG Hoffenheim with former VfB coach Pellegrino Matarazzo in what could be a final to determine who stays up.

Ahead of the game against Bayer 04, goalkeeper Fabian Bredlow declared: “We need to make amends at home to Leverkusen on Sunday in front of another top crowd.” The fact VfB Stuttgart have an enormous fan base has recently been underlined by an impressive stat. VfB announced on Friday that they have broken the 80,000 members mark. “This milestone provides an incredible boost for the whole club that can give us strength to escape from this difficult situation,” said president Claus Vogt.

VfB need six points from their remaining three games to be able to avoid the drop or at least make the play-off spot. They will definitely be looking to avoid a repeat of last season’s showdown. VfB beat FC Köln 2-1 with a goal in added time from Wataru Endo to ensure their top-flight status at the last minute. Stuttgart will be happy to be able to celebrate earlier this season.