Position
It’s been a wild 12 months for Mainz. Last season they survived relegation by the skin of their teeth, but this term they were actually pushing for UEFA Champions League qualification. Few could’ve imagined that, but the 05ers are enjoying the second-best season in their Bundesliga history and can lay claim to being 2024/25’s surprise package. Although a top-four finish is now out of reach, Mainz still look set to crown their campaign with a place in the Conference League qualifiers for 2025/26. And if things were to really go their way, there’s even a chance they could overtake Borussia Dortmund into fifth and play in the UEFA Europa League.
Henriksen’s side were in fourth place as late as Matchday 28, having actually been in third after 25 games. But a 3-1 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach then led to a drought of seven games without a win (four draws, three defeats) as they slipped to seventh.
It was then last week’s 4-1 win at Bochum that finally took Mainz back above RB Leipzig on goal difference after the latter’s goalless draw with Werder Bremen. Nadiem Amiri’s free-kick put them ahead, and the former Leverkusen midfielder has played a key role in his current team’s surge up the standings. Phillipp Mwene, Jonathan Burkardt and Paul Nebel got the other goals as the 05ers confirmed Bochum’s relegation and put themselves in pole position for Europe.
“Everything looked very different last year,” Henriksen recalled of last season’s dramatic survival. “And now we’ve got a final to qualify for Europe in the last game. Lots of people would’ve said I was mad if I’d predicted that. But that’s wonderful.” Amiri is also looking forward to this decisive game against his former club: “We’re on a great path and can now crown this incredible season. We’ve taken the team and the club to a new level. Our stadium will be buzzing on Saturday.”
Personnel
First-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner has had to miss the last two games against Bochum and Eintracht Frankfurt due to injury, with youth product Lasse Rieß filling in between the sticks. The 23-year-old has done a decent job, but it’s not clear if he’ll continue in goal against Leverkusen. Zentner could be back fit following his thigh issue.
Three players definitely out of Saturday’s game are defenders Moritz Jenz (nose), Maxim Dal (cruciate ligament) and ex-Werkself man Dominik Kohr, who suffered a knee injury against Frankfurt. Stefan Bell replaced him and will once again be at the heart of the 05ers’ back three, likely flanked by Danny da Costa and Andreas Hanche-Olsen.
The Mainz midfield has enjoyed remarkable consistency this season, with Amiri partnering Kaishu Sano in the centre. The latter is the only player to start every league game so far this season for Henriksen’s men and is the more defensive of the two. Amiri has been far more prolific going forward with six goals and seven assists.
Anthony Caci and Mwene are the usual wing-backs, supporting the front three of Burkardt (17 goals, three assists), Jae-Sung Lee (seven and nine) and Nebel (nine and six). Bayern Munich loanee Armindo Sieb has mostly been an option from the bench with his two goals and two assists.
Problems
Mainz’s 53 goals this season have been scored by only 11 players, which is the fewest of all teams in the Bundesliga. The aforementioned quartet of Burkardt, Nebel, Lee and Amiri have accounted for over two thirds of that total with 40 goals between them.
The team looked to have run out of steam towards the end of this season, with Henriksen stating that his side “wasn’t fully there” in the games against Dortmund (3-1 loss), Holstein Kiel (1-1 draw) and Hoffenheim (2-0 loss). And when there’s a slight drop off in intensity in the football that’s often brought Mainz success, then they struggle to get results. But they may have just recovered their strength in time for one final push.
Performers
There was a clear upturn in the 1-1 draw with neighbours Frankfurt just a fortnight ago. They came from behind to earn a point through Burkardt, who set a club record with 16 goals in a Bundesliga season. The 24-year-old Germany international has now reached 17 for the campaign after his latest strike in Bochum, which places him fourth in the division scoring chart behind Harry Kane (25, Serhou Guirassy (20) and Patrik Schick (19). Alongside Nebel and Lee, he’s formed one of the most prolific attacks in the top flight.
But Mainz have also impressed at the other end of the pitch this season. Like the Werkself, they have also conceded just 41 goals in 33 games for the third-best defence in the Bundesliga. Only Bayern (32) and St. Pauli (39) have been tighter at the back. The fact the 05ers have conceded the fewest of any team in the second half of games (19) speaks volumes for their energy levels.
