Our next opponents: The dream of Europe lives on

Position

FC Augsburg have looked really good for large parts of the season and been in the running for a European finish from time to time. From the end of February to the end of March, the team under coach Jess Thorup picked up 13 points from five games and, with a run of four wins on the bounce, they equalled a club record from 2014. They could dream of playing in Europe in seventh place. Augsburg were on course for their best season in ten years. But the Bavarian Swabians have struggled since April. Five defeats, with the last four in succession, just one win against Union Berlin (2-0) and a goal difference of 4 to 15 – that is the record from the last six matches. FCA are currently tenth on 39 points. Their defence looked more solid in the recent 1-0 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart. That was preceded by a 5-1 mauling away to Borussia Dortmund the week before. Jess Thorup did detect an improvement in his team last time out. “We were decent in defence and we wanted to be compact as a unit, you could see that on the pitch and we want to build on that for the future.”

Striker Ermedin Demirovic looked forward to the final game away to Bayer 04: “We were on a wave of success a few weeks ago and now, after four defeats in succession, our job is to fight on even if it’s difficult. Nobody expects us to get a result in Leverkusen but we want to give our all once again.”

PersonNEl

As in the previous two matches, Jess Thorup will have to manage without his first choice keeper Finn Dahmen in Leverkusen. The FCA number one is sidelined with a ligament injury and he has undergone a successful operation. Tomas Koubek is set to play in goal again at Bayer Leverkusen. Other players ruled out through injury are the defenders Reece Oxford, Robert Gumny and Raphael Framberger plus midfielders Fredrik Jensen and Elvis Rexhbecaj. Thorup will also have to find a replacement for the suspended right-back Kevin Mbabu. The Switzerland international, on loan from Fulham, picked up a fifth yellow card in the game against Stuttgart. Maximilian Bauer or Arne Engels could replace him on Saturday. Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Felix Uduokhai are first choices in central defence. Mads Pedersen and the Brazilian Iago are options on the left.

Kristijan Jakic, on loan from Eintracht Frankfurt since the winter, is one of the key players for Augsburg in his role as holding midfielder in front of the defence. The number ten Ruben Vargas is important in attack. The Swiss (four goals, five assists) is the third best scorer and provider for FCA behind the strikers Ermedin Demirovic (15/10) and Phillip Tietz (8/5).

Performers

The Demirovic/Tietz pairing is one of the most dangerous striker duos in the league. Of the 49 goals scored by FCA, the eighth best attack in the league, 23 have been netted by Demirovic and Tietz. The Werkself must also be ready to face a compact team committed to their task and willing to accept any duels. In the 1-0 home defeat against the Alonso team in the first half of the season, a battling Augsburg side remained in the game for a long time. Bayer 04 secured the three points late on with Exequiel Palacios scoring the winner in the fourth minute of added time.

Another demonstration of the strong mentality of the Red, Green and Whites: No other team has picked up more points after being behind than FCA. The opponents have led 25 times in the previous 33 games. But Augsburg collected 23 points (six wins, five draws). That is by far the best return in the league. And goals in the final 15 minutes is also a specialty of the Thorup team. They have scored twelve goals after 75 minutes. That is only beaten by the Werkself (22) and three other clubs.

Problems

Four defeats in succession last happened for Augsburg four years ago. A negative club record threatens in Leverkusen. The 15 goals conceded in the last five defeats have created a certain uncertainty. FCA have the fifth worst defence in Germany’s top flight with 58 goals conceded to date. The Thorup team have looked susceptible in defending set pieces. Augsburg have let in 21 goals from dead ball situations – that is more than any other team. And they have recently struggled up front. Demirovic has only scored once in the last nine matches.

Prediction

Of course, FC Augsburg are the underdogs in the game at the new champions of Germany on the final matchday. The Werkself would like to set another record before being presented with the Meisterschale: They want to be the first team in the history of the Bundesliga to go a whole season undefeated. However, there is a lot for Augsburg still to play for too. Although FCA have lost the last four games in succession, the door to European competition is slightly ajar. The words of Ermedin Demirovic before the start of the season appear prophetic: “Perhaps we want to play to get into the Conference League or finish tenth on the last matchday.” That is the way it has turned out and both are possible. FC Augsburg are currently tenth in the table. It would be the best finish for the club since the 2014/15 campaign when the Reds, Green and Whites ended up in fifth position. They could finished eighth with a win in Leverkusen if SC Freiburg lose away to Union Berlin. And that could put them in the UEFA Conference League. It remains exciting for FCA.