Our next opponents: Bochum’s rediscovered attacking ability

Position

According to Heiko Butscher, it was a “really mad football game that showed what football’s about and why it’s a sport we love so much”, the Bochum coach said after his side’s remarkable 4-3 win away at Union Berlin last weekend. “We played an almost perfect first half, scored three goals and fully implemented our game plan. We knew Union would react in the second half. Then it was just thrilling.” Defender Keven Schlotterbeck, who’d made it 3-0, spoke of “pure madness” and found it remarkable that “we still had to tremble after the best first half we’d played all season.”

The victory in Berlin was hugely important for 14th-placed Bochum. They can no longer face automatic relegation, while they are now four points above the play-off spot with two games to go. Caretaker boss Butscher, who took over from Thomas Letsch four weeks ago, has earned seven points from his four games. That is one point more than in the team’s previous 10 outings combined. The previous week saw VfL beat Hoffenheim 3-2 to end an eight-game winless run (D2, L6). Like they did against Union, they took a 3-0 lead before facing a dramatic conclusion.

It’s the first time this season the Ruhr club have managed back-to-back wins. They now look set for a similar finish to last season, when Bochum secured their Bundesliga status on the final day with a 3-0 win at home to Leverkusen, who have not lost a single competitive fixture since. If Bayer 04’s unbeaten streak comes to an end on Sunday, then VfL will definitely be safe, assuming a Borussia Dortmund win over Mainz on Saturday doesn’t do the job for them first.

Personnel

Captain Anthony Losilla is available again following suspension and could come back in for Patrick Osterhage or Matus Bero. Goalkeepers Niclas Thiede and Michael Esser are both still out, alongside defender Mohammed Tolba and midfielder Moritz-Broni Kwarteng.

First-choice Manuel Riemann will likely have the same back four in front of him as last week in Felix Passlack, Ivan Ordets, Schlotterbeck and Bernardo. Butscher also has little reason for change in midfield apart from the return of captain Losilla. Kevin Stöger remains the focal point of the team, while Moritz Broschinski and Maximilian Wittek have impressed out wide. But Takuma Asano is also available once more after muscular issues and provides another option in case Broschinski hasn’t recovered from illness during the week. Philipp Hofmann is the main man up top.

Performers

Bochum have rediscovered their attacking ability in recent weeks with seven goals in their last two games. Only the Werkself can match that tally from the past two rounds of fixtures in the Bundesliga. Those seven goals have come from five different players in Wittek, Stöger (both two), Passlack, Hofmann and Schlotterbeck. The latter – on loan from Freiburg – has netted five times this season and is one of the division’s top-scoring centre-backs. Austrian Stöger is their main source of goals in 2023/24 with seven scored and a further nine assists. Asano also provides attacking impetus with his six goals and an assist.

Bochum won a lot of second balls against Union, coming out on top in one-on-one duels. No team in the Bundesliga contests more challenges per game than VfL (120), so the Werkself should prepare for an intense encounter. They should also watch out at set pieces, where Bochum have scored 18 times to rank in the division’s top five. The hosts have also proven tough to beat at the Ruhrstadion, losing only three times this season and ranking eighth in the Bundesliga for points at home with 28.

Problems

It’s at the back where Bochum have had the most issues. Only bottom side Darmstadt have conceded more goals (76) than VfL (65). They have been particularly susceptible on the counter (eight goals conceded) and at set pieces (17), while only Mainz have let in more goals from headers (16) than Bochum (13). They have also conceded a joint-league-high 16 goals in the final 15 minutes – certainly an interesting stat given the fact that Bayer 04 have been prolific late in games with 19 goals after the 75th minute.

The contrast between Bochum’s home and away form is also big. As said, they are strong at home but have the second-worst record in the Bundesliga on the road with just 10 points. Only relegation rivals Mainz have returned home with fewer points (nine).

Prediction

Bochum have taken a big step towards survival with their recent wins over Hoffenheim and Union. Their fate is now in their own hands for the final two games. Perhaps they will guarantee safety now against the Werkself. Bayer 04 have failed to win or score in their two visits to the Ruhrstadion since VfL were promoted back to the Bundesliga in 2021. Everyone there still fondly remembers the last encounter on the final day of last season when they secured their top-flight status with a 3-0 win over Leverkusen. They would like to see a similar outcome this Sunday with a game to spare this season. If they don’t get the job done now, then they will need to go to Werder Bremen on the final day still battling for survival – a scenario they would no doubt prefer to avoid.